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The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. Fans flooding the field to symbolize the home team's momentous achievement.

After defeating three home nations, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a Test.

A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly with considerable hope. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Leaving the stadium that evening, Scottish fans would have had optimism about what was to come. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and zero victories, but obvious indications that maybe one was not far off.

Three years later, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Three years further on, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, yes, the pattern continued.

Modern Encounters

Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.

In his time in the job, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Team News

Over the past seasons the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have reduced to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Through their brilliance, their power, game management, they secure victory.

We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Optimism meets historical reality.

Missing Players

Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was like a kick in the guts.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern.

During modern rugby early in matches, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.

Replacement Concerns

Another absence is Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with his club. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

Once Rae's shift ends, his replacement takes over. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class.

Coaching Choices

The coach has made unexpected selections, partly expected, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, despite numerical advantage, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, set-piece issues.

Statistical Analysis

Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in the first half and 60 in the second half.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively.

Required Performance

Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, victory seemed assured. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The clear message is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - and keep it there.

Over the last decade, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have required a points average in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only occasionally against the All Blacks.

Conclusion

Everything has to go right for Townsend's team. Everything. Wasted opportunities then hopes fade. A yellow card? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? It's over.

With perfect execution? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Optimistic thinking, maybe. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.